Threat Modeling: Assessing Your Risks
Digital security for activists begins with threat modeling — a structured way to assess your risks, priorities, adversaries and realistic protection options.
Overview
Threat modeling is essentially asking yourself: what am I protecting, and from whom? How might those threats materialize, and what would the consequences be if they succeed?
By answering these questions, you can focus on the risks that matter most in your situation. Every activist’s context is unique, so your security approach should be tailored to your reality.
What is threat modeling?
Threat modeling is the process of thinking systematically about threats and defenses. It starts with understanding that security needs are personal and subjective. There is no one-size-fits-all solution.
Instead, it is about habits and awareness: regularly reflecting on changes in your work or environment that might introduce new threats, and adjusting your practices accordingly. Over time, this becomes a routine part of how you plan and operate.
Assets
Identify what needs protection: accounts, files, contacts, chats, devices or people.
Adversaries
Consider who might target you and what capabilities they may have.
Attack methods
Think through phishing, device seizure, surveillance, account hacking or insider risks.
Impact
Assess what damage could happen if an account, device or document is compromised.
The five key questions
Threat modeling centers on five practical questions. These help turn a vague concern like “I’m worried about digital threats” into concrete decisions.
What do you want to protect?
List your critical digital assets, sensitive information, accounts and devices.
Who do you need to protect it from?
Identify potential adversaries and their capabilities, resources and motivation.
How could those threats occur?
Think through likely attack scenarios: phishing, interception, theft, malware or coercion.
What would the impact be?
Estimate the worst-case consequences if a sensitive asset were compromised.
How much inconvenience can you accept?
Decide what level of protection is justified by your actual risk level.
Real-world example: knowing your adversary
In early 2024, a network of independent NGOs and journalists in Eastern Europe faced a targeted spear-phishing campaign. Attackers sent highly tailored fake emails to staff members, attempting to steal account credentials through counterfeit login pages.
The attackers understood their targets’ context. In one case, an email impersonated a secure email provider and warned of a login issue. In another, shortly after a prominent activist’s arrest, colleagues received an email that appeared to come from a trusted NGO partner with an attachment about the arrest.
The lesson is direct: if an adversary is well-resourced, persistent and politically motivated, activists need stronger precautions. Strong passwords, two-factor authentication and quick expert support made simple account compromise harder and forced attackers to use more advanced tactics.
A good threat model helps predict both the likely adversary and the likely attack method. In this case, the threat model correctly pointed to account phishing by a persistent actor.
A lower-tech example comes from Belarusian “silent protests” in 2011, where activists used public social networks for organizing. Authorities could monitor plans in real time and pre-emptively deploy police. Good threat modeling would have suggested private, encrypted channels for critical planning.
Turning threat models into action
After defining your threat model, the next step is to choose security measures that address the risks you have identified. The rest of the handbook works like a menu of options. Your threat model tells you which options matter most.
Account Protection
If attackers may target your accounts, prioritize passwords, 2FA and account recovery.
Chapter 4Secure Communication
If you worry about eavesdropping, focus on encrypted messaging and safer channels.
Chapter 5Device & Data Protection
If seizure or theft is likely, encrypt devices, reduce sensitive data and keep backups.
Chapter 10Incident Response
If compromise is a major concern, prepare a recovery plan before something goes wrong.
Threat modeling checklist
Use this checklist to review your own risk assessment before choosing security measures.
I have listed the digital assets I most need to protect.
I have considered who might want to breach or sabotage those assets.
I have evaluated how likely these adversaries are to act against me or my organization.
I have thought about the worst-case consequences if key assets were compromised.
I know how far I am willing to go with stronger security measures.
I know which areas need the most urgent protection improvements.
Sources and references
The examples and context in this chapter are based on publicly available reporting and security research.
Test your understanding, then continue to account protection
Take the short anonymous quiz for this chapter. Your individual result is not stored on the server. After that, continue with strong passwords, password managers, two-factor authentication, recovery settings and account monitoring.
Download the full Digital Security Toolkit
Prefer reading offline or sharing the material with your team? Download the full PDF version of the Digital Security Toolkit.